Black Eye for ASEAN?

Thai soldiers stand guard near the border with Cambodia, April 27, 2011.

Southeast Asia's bloodiest border conflict in years between Thailand and Cambodia is threatening to damage the credibility of the regional grouping ASEAN, and may dampen its investment-attracting initiatives, analysts say.

The crisis could also deliver a severe blow to democracy in Thailand, where the military has regained control of politics since a 2006 coup and has refused to enter into an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-sponsored dialogue with Cambodia.

Troops of the two neighboring nations clashed with heavy artillery for a sixth day on Wednesday as planned ceasefire talks were abruptly canceled, dampening hopes of an end to the dispute that has killed at least 14 people and sent more than 50,000 into makeshift evacuation centers.

The clashes are viewed as a setback for ASEAN, a 10-member bloc modeled on the European Union with ambitions to become a regional community by 2015, after the Thai army rebuffed the deployment of international monitors on either side of the border under an agreement among ASEAN foreign ministers in February.

The problem "has begun to undermine the credibility of ASEAN’s efforts to transform itself into a security community by 2015," said Rizal Sukma, executive director of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta.

Many within ASEAN had cheered the grouping's February agreement—which also called for the convening of talks between Thailand and Cambodia in Indonesia—as "something of historic value for ASEAN," but the renewed clashes show such optimism to be "premature," he said.

"It would be more difficult now to dismiss criticisms that the utility and role of ASEAN have not yet been fully valued by its own members ... ASEAN would be hard-pressed to gain international respect if it cannot even gain respect from its own members."

Sukma said that it would not look good for ASEAN, whose current chairman is Indonesia, if the dispute is eventually taken up by the United Nations Security Council, which had in fact asked the regional grouping to resolve the issue by itself.

"If the conflicting parties cannot seize the opportunity to settle the problem using the ASEAN option, there is the possibility that the UNSC [or some of its members] would come to the conclusion that regional arrangements had failed to address the problem," he said.

Thailand has pressed for a bilateral solution while Cambodia has effectively ruled out talks until a May 7-8 ASEAN leaders summit in Jakarta, insisting on third-party mediation.

ASEAN Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan has himself said that ASEAN's reputation is at stake, and has called for immediate dialogue to end the conflict over 12th-century Hindu temples in a disputed border area.

Source of tension

The Preah Vihear temple particularly has been a source of tension for generations, and the two countries have been locked in a standoff since July 2008, when the temple was granted UNESCO World Heritage status.

Thailand opposed the listing on grounds that the land around the temple had never been demarcated.

An international court awarded Preah Vihear to Cambodia 49 years ago, but both countries lay claim to a 4.6 sq km (1.8 sq mile) patch of land around it.

While officials from both sides claim that the conflict is over sovereignty and territory, the fighting seems to be fueled by political interests on both sides, analysts said.

In Thailand particularly, the military is accused of fueling the conflict in an apparent bid to unify Thais behind the army.

Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjaiva's government, which came to power in 2008 with the help of the military, plans to hold elections by July. The military has hinted it is not ready to welcome a new government if it is to be led by the opposition Pheu Thai Party.

The party's de-facto leader is former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whose elected government was ousted in a 2006 military coup. His "Red Shirt" opposition movement remains a formidable force.

"In the current crisis, the military has shown no sign of giving up its political ambition. It has continued to identify old and new faces and threats, including Thaksin, his Red Shirt supporters, and his Cambodian friend across the border—Prime Minister Hun Sen," said Pavin Chachavalpongpu, an analyst at the Singapore-based Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.

"This explains why the Thai military has refused to enter into an ASEAN-sponsored dialogue with Cambodia unless its request for a bilateral solution is adopted."

Pavin said that constant rumours about another military coup and the latest clashes with Cambodia were meant to send a "strong message" that the elections are untimely.

"Above all, these incidents indicate that the military has no intention of staying out of politics in the near future."

Ahead of the polls, the Thai government has also shut down community radio stations associated with the anti-government Red Shirt movement in a move criticized by rights groups.

“The upcoming elections can hardly be credible if the government closes down opposition radio stations and websites,” said Brad Adams, Asia director at Human Rights Watch. “This government came into office saying it was committed to protecting rights, but it has become the most prolific censor in recent Thai history.”

Choosing sides

The Thai-Cambodian conflict could also put the other ASEAN nations Brunei, Burma, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam in the "impossible position" of having to choose sides, which might "tear the organization apart," the Wall Street Journal warned in an editorial. 

"As long as the military is allowed to play its pivotal role in national politics, Thailand will fail to play its rightful role as a stabilizing force in Southeast Asia," it said.

Cambodia’s key constituencies have just as much reason to prolong the dispute, even though citizens may suffer, said analyst Joshua Kurlantzick from the Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations.

The dispute allows Prime Minister Hun Sen’s oldest son, Hun Manet, to play a larger role in military policymaking, potentially positioning him one day to take over running the country from his father, Kurlantzick said.

"And the dispute, by fanning nationalist flames in Cambodia as well, distracts from other pressing problems, such as the pending eviction of thousands of poor Cambodians from central Phnom Penh to make way for a development given to a close associate of the prime minister," he said.

Meanwhile, concerns are mounting over the adverse effects on business in the region if the Thai-Cambodian clashes persist.

"Their actions are undermining the credibility of the [ASEAN] and a landmark agreement signed in December 2008 that aims to boost the region's economic and investment potential," said an editorial in the South China Morning Post, Hong Kong's leading newspaper.

"Come 2015, it intends to become a community in the style of the European Union, with free trade as the basis for development and progress. Maintaining and improving peace, security and stability is an integral part of attaining that objective; without them, business, investors and tourists won't be attracted."